Housing and mortgage forecasts

Our forecasts for 2008 are summarised below. The complete forecast can be be downloaded as a pdf below.

Last revised May 2008

 

2004

2005

2006

2007 

2008 

House price growth, Q4, year on year % change  

15

5

 10

5

-7

Property sales, England and Wales (HM Land Registry), millions

1.20

1.03 

1.28

1.22

0.77 

Gross advances, £bn

291

288 

346

363

285 

Net advances, £bn

101

91

110

108

55

Arrears over 3 months, number at end period

104,400

122,900

119,500

129,800

170,000 

Arrears over 3 months, % of all
mortgages at end period

0.88

 1.06

1.02

1.10

1.45

Possessions, number in period

8,200

14,600

22,400

27,100

45,000

Possessions in period, % of all
mortgages

0.07 

0.13

0.19

0.23

0.38 

GDP%

3.3

1.8

2.9

3.0 

1.75

Base rate, end year, %

4.75

4.5

5.0

5.5

4.75

Source: Bank of England, National Statistics, HM Land Registry, HBOS, CML
Notes: (1) Figures for arrears and possessions are estimated and relate only to first charge lenders who are members of the CML.  They do not include arrears and possessions relating to other secured lending or to firms that are not CML members.

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