CML news & views

Gross mortgage lending soared in the early part of this decade. But it still took almost six years for it to double to £360 billion in 2007. In just two years since then, however, lending has more than halved to £144 billion. 

So, what will a “normal” mortgage market look like in future – and how will it be funded?

In the last two years, most lenders have been focusing on dealing with the immediate crisis – the here and now. But the aftermath of the crisis is also a good time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture, and to try to anticipate what mortgage and housing markets will look like in the future. That’s why the CML is hosting the future housing conference at the Westbury Hotel, London, on 24 February.

For more than 20 years now, mortgage and housing markets has been changing and developing rapidly. More recently, the pace of change has not only accelerated but become more difficult to predict.

What does the combination of a financial crisis and a sharp economic downturn mean for housing construction rates, for example? For many years before the recent crisis, the construction of homes had lagged behind growth in demand, contributing to spiralling property prices. Since 2007, however, building rates have fallen sharply. What does it all mean for home-ownership? Will it still be the cherished tenure of the future? Or will younger people today think there’s nothing wrong with renting at 40?

Regulatory change is contributing to the air of uncertainty. Does the funding shortage – and a possible ban on self-cert and fast-tracking – mean that product innovation has come to an end? And with the Financial Services Authority deciding that borrowers can no longer be assumed to act in their own interests, are consumers in a stronger or weaker position?

The housing minister John Healey will use the conference to set out the government’s priorities and what they mean for housing tenure in future. John Stewart, of the Home Builders Federation will argue that there are uncomfortable and challenging policy choices for any future government that is serious about bringing about a significant long-term increase in house-building. And Kay Boycott, of Shelter, will look at the consequences for housing affordability and the social and economic health of the nation.

CML staff will be making a full contribution to the conference debates. Michael Coogan will explain why the mortgage market will no longer be the same and what we can expect in the future. Bob Pannell will examine the myths and lies about first-time buyers – can anyone afford to get on the housing ladder today, and does the government care? And finally Rob Thomas will look at prospects for mortgage funding and ask: can we develop a new model of mortgage funding and, if not, to what extent can lending grow if we have to rely on retail deposits?