From 1st July the Council of Mortgage Lenders is integrated into a new trade association, UK Finance. For the time being, all UKF mortgage information will continue to be published on this website, and UKF member-only mortgage information will only be available here.

UK Finance represents around 300 firms in the UK providing credit, banking, markets and payment-related services. The new organisation takes on most of the activities previously carried out by the Asset Based Finance Association, the British Bankers’ Association, the Council of Mortgage Lenders, Financial Fraud Action UK, Payments UK and the UK Cards Association. Please go to www.ukfinance.org.uk for wider content and updates from UK Finance.

Our forecasts are more pessimistic about the future than a year ago, partly relating to the economic uncertainty from the EU referendum, but also because of tax and regulatory changes in the housing and mortgage market. However, the housing market is relatively well insulated from Brexit, compared with other parts of the economy, as most activity is driven domestically.

Property transactions have been subdued through the second half of the year, even after accounting for the stamp duty distortions on buy-to-let; but, given robust demand, we still do not expect to see national house price falls over the next two years.

Stamp duty and regulatory changes are both likely to weigh on activity in the buy-to-let sector. We expect 2015 to be the high watermark for buy-to-let house purchase activity, with 2016 through to 2018 all to be weaker.

You can read the full housing and mortgage market forecasts for 2017/2018 in December's Market Commentary.

CML market view, December 2016

 Year

Residential property transactions

Gross advances

Net 
advances

Arrears
2.5% or more of balance
at end period

Possessions in period

 

000s

£ billion

£ billion

 

 

 

       

 

2007

1,614

357

104

127,800

25,900

2008

900

248

35

182,600

40,000

2009

858

141

9

199,600

48,900

2010

886

134

6

175,800

38,500

2011

885

138

7

161,400

37,300

2012

932

145

10

157,900

33,900

2013

1,074

178

14

144,600

28,900

2014

1,219

203

24

114,000

20,900

2015

1,230

220

33

102,000

10,500

2016

1,238

246

38

93,000

7,900

 

1,250

237

31

105,000

18,000

2017

1,170

248

30

100,000

10,000

 

1,260

261

39

115,000

19,000 

2018

1,155

252

30

110,000

13,000

Note: Figures in grey italics show CML forecasts as at December 2015 for 2016 and 2017