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New CML forecasts for 2017 and gross lending up 3% in November

Published: 15 December 2016

The Council of Mortgage Lenders today publishes new housing market forecasts, and reports gross lending of £21 billion in November - up by an estimated 3% on October, and also 3% up on a year ago.

The CML's lending forecasts for 2017 have been revised downwards from the previous expectations of a year ago, reflecting economic uncertainties as well as new tax burdens and regulatory changes in the housing and mortgage markets.

The CML now expects gross lending of £248 billion in 2017 and £252 billion in 2018, with net lending of £30 billion in each of those years.

Commenting on market conditions and prospects, CML director general Paul Smee said:

Overall, the mortgage market remains resilient but is likely to plateau rather than grow much for the next couple of years. Gross lending is likely to hover around the £250 billion mark in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Property transactions look set to drift down slightly, although we do not expect house prices to fall, and net lending seems unlikely to get above £30 billion next year.

The housing market is relatively well insulated from direct Brexit effects as most activity is driven domestically, but it is not immune from more generalised economic uncertainty. And we expect any modest strengthening in home-owner lending to be rather offset by a less active house purchase market in buy-to-let, as both tax and regulatory changes bite on landlords.

Read the CML's full market forecasts in December's market commentary

Notes to editors

1. The Council of Mortgage Lenders' members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 97% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK. There are 11.1 million mortgages in the UK, with loans worth over £1.3 trillion.

2. The Council of Mortgage Lenders does not publish statistics for mortgage approvals. The data in our monthly mortgage lending press release and gross lending press releases relate to mortgage advances only. A mortgage approval is the firm offer to a customer of a specific amount of credit secured against a particular property. A mortgage advance is the total amount of loan actually provided to the buyer, by the lender.

3. The CML's gross mortgage lending estimate for December will be published on Thursday 26 January 2017.

4. This month's full market commentary and forecasts can be viewed on the CML website.

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